Old Farmers Almanac

One of my relatives recently picked up a copy of the Old Farmer’s Almanac. So, I asked what was inside. He said that one of the things inside the book was predictions about how warm or cold the next season would be, which is useful for farmers. I was skeptical, and thought “that sounds like something that can be tested mathematically”. Were their predictions any better than chance?

Flipping through it, I stumbled on this chart. I have to give them credit for listing last year’s prediction along with that year’s actual values.

Some predicted values were very close to their actual values, but others were off in a major way. Adding up the numbers, the gap between their predicted value and the actual value was an average of 1.92 degrees.

For comparison, if you predicted nothing at all (i.e. zero temperature variation from normal), your prediction would be off by an average of 1.99 degrees. If you made predictions using random numbers between -2.0 and +2.0, you’d be off by an average of 2.12 degrees. Since their predicted values were between -2.0 and +2.0 in 15 out of 16 cases, this is probably a good comparison to random. So, the Farmer’s Almanac did slightly better than random, but not by much. When thousands of random predictions were generated between -2.0 and +2.0, the Farmer’s Almanac scored in the 78th percentile. This is the equivalent of correctly guessing 6 out of 10 coin flips, or having 2 or 3 of the 16 predictions being exactly correct, while the other 13 or 14 predictions being completely random.

Based on this, I’d say that either the Farmer’s Almanac predictions were no better than random but they had a good year (something that could be double-checked by looking at predictions in other years), or maybe they have some slight indication of the upcoming season (for example, if there’s a slight tendency for a warm summer to follow a cold winter).

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People’s Fair / Religion, Woo, and I got E-Metered

The People’s Fair is going on this weekend. It’s an annual fair in the middle of downtown where people come and setup booths to sell things – mostly artists selling jewelery or pictures. There were some religious/psychic/woo booths around as well. Some of the booths included: a Palm Reader, Reflexology, two 9/11 “truth” groups (who I decided not to photograph since they are already paranoid), several churches, a few transcendental meditation groups, a magnet therapy group, a “Reasons to Believe” (creationist) group, a humanist group, and a Scientology booth.

The Reasons to Believe booth is pictured below. (Those signs say “Connecting people with Jesus through Science” and the small yellow sign says, “Big Bang the Bible taught it first” – uh, sure it did.)

The Reflexology booth – with their pretend “Scientific Basis” for Reflexology. Reflexology is an early 20th-century cure-all which claims to heal disease by massaging your feet. (See Penn and Teller’s episode about Reflexology and Magnet Therapy here.)

I grabbed a brochure from the magnet-therapy booth. It claims:

Here is some of what we have seen.

– Frozen arthritic hands opened after only 5 minutes wearing a double-strand bracelet.
– Intense migraine headaches disappeared within 20 minutes wearing a single strand necklace or double-strand bracelet.
…
Here is a partial list of the many conditions that have been relieved using magnet therapy.

Ance, Allergies, Arthritis, Asthma, Back aches, High Blood Pressure, Bunions, Bursitis, Diabetes, Carpal Tunnel Syndrome, Chronic Fatigue Syndrome, Colitis, Cramps, Earaches, Fibromyalgia, Frozen Shoulder, Heel Spurs, Insomnia, Joint Pain, Menstrual Cramps, Migranes, Osteoporosis, Poor Circulation, Rheumatoid Arthritis, Tendonitis, and Tennis Elbow.
…
Consult a physician before using magnets during pregnancy, or if you have a pacemaker or defibrillator. The use of magnets on your abdomen within 90 minutes of a meal is not recommended.

Uh, sure. I also noticed that the symptoms treated by Reflexology were pretty much the same symptoms treated by magnet therapy.

There was also this booth:

Sure, it looks like “God Is Nowhere”, but I’ve seen them at the fair in the past. They’re actually a Christian ministry. (I think their sign could also be interpreted as “God Is Now Here”, but they keep it intentionally ambiguous.) The subtext “the mystery revealed” should give you a hint that this isn’t an atheist or agnostic group. Inside, they have a selection of books ranging from Skeptic Magazine (an old copy dating back to the year 2000), Creation Science Magazine (dating to 1996), Josh McDowell’s “More than a Carpenter”, the Quran, John Hagee, and a copy of the Darwin Awards book (uh, what?) – basically, a wide-variety of skeptical and religious books (most of them old and worn, and apparently not for sale). They seem to be trying to draw people into discussions, under the pretense of being atheists or something. I wasn’t quite sure. I was curious about what their approach might be, so I hung around the booth and looked over their literature, wondering if they would try to draw me into a discussion about religion.

I heard one guy say, “Christians say that the resurrection is the best evidence for Jesus’ divinity.” Then he picked up a book and said, “This book claims to have 80 pages proving the resurrection true.” I smiled at his pretense to being just an atheist talking to another atheist. It was rather bizarre. I thought they might be a little more upfront about their religion once you stepped into the booth, but, apparently, they maintain the pretense of being atheists while making blatantly pro-Christian arguments. Was this some sort of weird performance art? I eventually wandered off after 10 minutes or so (no one attempted to talk to me).

Wandering over to the Scientology tent, I tried to listen in as the Scientologists gave free “stress tests” to people.

While standing there, a guy with a large camera walked up behind me and took a few pictures. I turned and smiled, wondering if he was with Anonymous or something. He must’ve realized I was on his side because he walked up and started talking to me. We talked a bit, and he handed me an “anonymous” card with links to websites about Scientology. (Good luck, Anonymous guy!)

A little later, another guy next to me was looking in on people taking the “stress tests”. He asks if I believe any of this. I tell him “no”, and asks if I believe in any religion. I tell him “no” again, but I used to be a Christian. He asks me why I don’t believe, and I begin with my usual, “If God went out of his way to provide a means for salvation (Jesus crucifixion), and He loves people and wants them saved, then He would make sure the truth of Christianity was a lot more obvious. But, it’s not. Lots of people missed out because of that, and that’s contradictory with the idea that God wants to save people…” It turns out that he’s working for one of the church booths nearby. He replies that people just don’t want to believe, and then says that Jesus was unique among all religions because he’s the only one who claimed to be God. I mention that a number of religious leaders claim to be God, and bring up Sun Myung Moon (the Moonies), and that he has hundreds of thousands of followers. He’d never even heard of Sun Myung Moon. I mentioned that several other cult leaders in the US also claim to be God.

Then he makes the “morality is real, not relative” argument, and that evolution can’t explain morality or empathy. I replied that morality is a way of interacting with other human beings, and that there are some ideas about how morality could evolve. I talk about reciprocity (if you do good, people will do good back to you; if you do harm, people will want to harm you in return), and that human beings understand reciprocity. Once a creature has the ability to remember interactions with other creatures, then they can reciprocate your actions, and that means not treating other people badly. I also talk about how empathy could be a side-effect of learning by watching others. We learn to do things by watching other people do them – by putting ourselves in their shoes. But, when we put ourselves in their shoes, we are also aware of how they might feel when we do bad things to them – i.e. we empathize. He says that evolution can’t explain morality because survival of the fittest is all about immediate gratification. (Of course, survival of the fittest is not about immediate gratification – it’s about passing on our genes.) He then asks – if it’s all about immediate gratification – then why don’t we do drugs, have lots of casual sex, or gamble. I tell him that there are lots of reasons not to do those things – they might give you instant gratification, but they aren’t satisfying in the long-run. People on drugs experience lots of problems. Sex might be fun in the moment, but lots of people eventually find it hollow. And gambling will eventually make you broke.

He argues that evolution can’t explain the origins of morality – how did the first creature have a moral sense? Where did it come from? I say that the first “moral” sense might’ve developed from animals taking care of their young. It’s important for mothers to take care of their young, and even risk their lives for them. From an evolutionary standpoint, it makes sense. If you step between a mother bear and her cub, she’ll come after you – potentially risking her life when she could run away. Birds do the same thing (acting wounded to draw predators away from their helpless young). The moral sense might’ve “started” there – with taking care of our young. Biologically speaking, animals who give birth experience an increase in oxytocin – which makes them more nurturing. And this “nuturing” behavior isn’t always directed towards our own young – oxytosin makes mammals nurturing even towards other animal’s children, and even other species. Take, for example, this case of a mother cat taking care of ducklings. (Plus, there’s a good argument to be made for sexual-selection of partners who are empathetic and nurturing.) He doesn’t really have a response other than to repeat the question about how the moral sense got started. He eventually heads back to the booth.

But, back to the Scientology booth:

I eventually sat down and took the Scientology “stress tests”. This was also the first time that I’ve seen an e-meter in person. The first thing that strikes you is just how chintzy these things are. Apparently, the “church” sells them for thousands of dollars. I’d be surprised if they cost more than $5 to manufacture. You sit down and hold two metal cylinders between your hands. It’s a little bit like holding two empty cans of Red Bull. They’re wired up to the E-Meter which has a voltage meter on it. First, you hold onto these cylinders, and he adjusts it so that the voltage meter is balancing in the middle. Then he asks you to think about things that stress you out. The meter typically moves a little to the right, which is interpreted as “you’re stressed”. My meter was barely moving. He starts asking me to think about work, money, my girlfriend, the global environment, hoping that I’ll have a response to something. But, my meter is barely moving. He tells me that I must be a very un-stressed person (which, admittedly, he’s right about). In fact, my meter starts to move to the left of center, so he has to stop and adjust it back to center. At first, I was trying to relax, but I found that even thinking about stressful things didn’t have much of an effect on the e-meter. I even tried thinking about my old boss. Still no effect. But, every time the meter moved even slightly to the right, the Scientologist said, “oh, you must’ve been stressed about whatever you were thinking about at that moment.” In my opinion, the meter didn’t have anything to do with what I was thinking about at all. He eventually said that I must be a very unstressed person and that Scientology would be very good for me because if I’m already this ‘advanced’ that I imagine how much higher I could be with Scientology. He says that Scientology is very interested in people like me because of my innate abilities. (And, I’m sure if I was very stressed, Scientology would be wonderful for reducing the stress in my life. See: they can’t lose. No matter who you are, Scientology is for you!) He then said that I should take a copy of the Dianetics book. At first, I thought he was offering it for free (I thought about taking it – only to deprive the Scientologists of the book’s printing costs), but then he said something about $20. I joked and said, “What? You’re not giving them away for free? The Gideons give Bibles away for free.” He replied that the Gideons must have some other way to offset their printing costs. But, I’m pretty sure those Dianetics books don’t cost $20 each to print.

(Read my other posts about Scientology here.)

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Alicia Keys Talks About Her Conspiracy Theories

Ha ha. How ridiculous.

NEW YORK (AP) – There’s another side to Alicia Keys: conspiracy theorist. The Grammy-winning singer-songwriter tells Blender magazine: “‘Gangsta rap’ was a ploy to convince black people to kill each other. ‘Gangsta rap’ didn’t exist.”

Keys, 27, said she’s read several Black Panther autobiographies and wears a gold AK-47 pendant around her neck “to symbolize strength, power and killing ’em dead,” according to an interview in the magazine’s May issue, on newsstands Tuesday.

Another of her theories: That the bicoastal feud between slain rappers Tupac Shakur and Notorious B.I.G. was fueled “by the government and the media, to stop another great black leader from existing.”

Keys’ AK-47 jewelry came as a surprise to her mother, who is quoted as telling Blender: “She wears what? That doesn’t sound like Alicia.” Keys’ publicist, Theola Borden, said Keys was on vacation and unavailable for comment.

Though she’s known for her romantic tunes, she told Blender that she wants to write more political songs. If black leaders such as the late Black Panther Huey Newton “had the outlets our musicians have today, it’d be global. I have to figure out a way to do it myself,” she said. (Source)

Funny that she blames gangsta rap on a government/media conspiracy, but then wears an AK-47 necklace. These kinds of stories makes me miss “Rainbow Soul” – an Black internet talk radio station that I would occasionally listen to — for its unintentional entertainment value, kinda like Coast-to-Coast AM, except tailored for Black people. They played up the racist conspiracy angle or various types of “woo” quite a bit. I had actually planned on recording a bit of it and doing a blog post about it a while back, but then they took it off free internet radio (you have to pay for it now).

A quick look at the Rainbow Soul shows should give you a taste though. Admittedly, some of the shows are normal, but many of them really are this hokey. I feel bad for people getting advice from these shows – it’s like getting directions from someone holding the map upsidedown.

Heal Thyself with Queen Afua
Queen Afua is a nationally renowned herbalist, wholistic health specialist and dedicated healer of women’s bodies and souls, who practices from a uniquely Afrocentric spiritual perspective. Through her work as a Certified Colon therapist, polarity practitioner, Hatha Yoga and Ari Ankh Ka (Ancient Afrikan Yoga / Movements) Instructor, lay midwife and fasting specialist, she has guided thousands of women and men coast to coast in the art and science of Natural Living.
An initiate of the Shrine of Ptah and Chief Khamitic Priestess of Purification in the Temple of Nebt-Het (an ancient Afrikan order) in New York City, Queen Afua is the Founder, Director, and Spiritual Guide to the Global Sacred Woman Village Center.

What’s Ailing America? with Dr. Rebecca Carley
On her journey to becoming an awakened allopath, her most disturbing revelation was the realization that there is an epidemic of disease of the immune systems, or immunopathies, caused by vaccinations. This led her to begin a new specialty; VIDS: Vaccine Induced Disease Syndromes. She teaches her patients how to heal themselves, and uses homeopathy and other natural products with no side effects to detoxify the vaccinations and other immune system assaulters… She is successfully reversing the epidemic of autoimmune diseases (such as autism, ADD, learning disabilities, asthma, lupus psoriasis, allergies, etc.), as well as cancer with the Hippokrates protocol she has developed.

An Insight To You with Dora Jones
Tune in and just listen and feel. Use her viable words for daily living step by step as she guides you using numerology and astrology to chart your spiritual destiny and mission in life…answers to why am I here?

Conscious Rasta with Keidi Awadu
Books by Keidi Obi Awadu
• Vaccines: An Ounce of Prevention or a Pound of Death? (1996)
• Mind Control (1996)
• Prisons: The Lockdown of Black (America’s Future) (1996)
• Epidemic: The Rise of New Childhood Diseases in the U.S. (1997)
• Rap, Hip Hop & the New World Order (“This shocking report documents how a complex government operation penetrated hip hop music to its core in order to cause confusion among urban youth.”) (1997)
• The Technology of Control (“The computer revolution has created a myriad of new methods of controlling us and suppressing our true will. We cover lasers, microwaves, spy satellites, microchips, cameras all around, and various other forms of The Technology of Control.”) (1997)
• Busted: The Latex Condom Conspiracy (“Latex condoms cause cancer, sterility, ectopic pregnancy, gender confusion, allergies and we’ve got a solution.”) (1998)
• AIDS: The Establishment Confesses (It’s A Hoax!) (1998)
• High Crimes of Murder (1998)
• The Road to Power: Seven Steps to an African Global Order (1999)

It’s too bad they didn’t find any space in their schedule for the Infidel Guy or Neil DeGrasse Tyson.

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Psychics and the Creationist Museum

I was talking to a friend of mine the other day. Her friend Karen recently returned from teaching in Japan over the past few years. But, Karen doesn’t go out on the weekends, despite the fact that she wants to find a boyfriend/husband. Why doesn’t she get out and meet people? Because a psychic told her that she’d meet the man she’d marry in the next year. Now Karen doesn’t feel the need to even try to meet anyone – it’s already “guaranteed” by a psychic. (Who says psychics are all just harmless fun?)

In other news, my dad sent me an email the other day. They’re driving thorough Ohio, so they thought they’d make a visit to the Creation Museum. No, this isn’t a “what are these wacky creationists claiming” kind of a trip. My parents actually believe in a six-day creation and a six-thousand year-old universe. I just wish my parents weren’t paying these charlatans.

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“Psychic Nikki” caught red-handed

The SkepTick gave a talk a few weeks ago, and, just for fun, he copied down some predictions for 2008 that PsychicNikki had put on her website. One section was titled “Death Watch/Health Watch” – with names of people who might have a higher chance of dying that year. A few days later (January 22), Heath Ledger died. Returning to PsychicNikki’s website on the 23rd, he discovered Ledger’s name added to the “Death Watch/Health Watch” predictions for 2008. Even worse for her, the google cache of her website still showed Ledger’s name missing from the list.

Psychics: showing that they can predict the future by retroactively changing their predictions. And when her website claims that she’s “in the top 1%” of psychics, I wouldn’t be surprised if that were true.

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So, you’re a chi master?

You can hit people from a distance with mystical chi power, but, for some reason, it only works on your own students (resulting in an embarrassing loss to an MMA fighter who seems impervious to your attacks). Then, you use chi power to harden your skin against the strikes of a blade – only to end up cutting yourself badly. And, now another ‘chi’ master has the same problem – he just can’t seem to affect anyone but his own students.

As the Skeptics Guide to the Universe points out, it’s probably a shared delusion of both the ‘chi master’ and his students. For the students, I’m sure it’s terribly intimidating to have your instructor (who often seems larger-than-life) tell you he’s going to knock you unconscious, have a history of ‘knocking people unconscious’ with this move, be up in front of everyone, and have him do this technique to you. If you’re a true believer, there might very well be some psychologically-induced physiological effects. Further, his students seem to fall in a self-protective manner (which indicates that they aren’t actually unconscious). If you’ve ever gone unconscious, or seen someone go unconscious, they often drop a little differently – sometimes their knees buckle, sometimes their head hits the ground – because when you’re unconscious, you’re not in control of your body. There are some parallels here with being “slain in the spirit“.

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